Monthly report June 2019

The second quarter of 2019 ended with a monthly return of 5.55%, while our main benchmark (TSX-V) fell by 2.67%. By far the most important development in the past month was the sudden and very powerful outbreak of gold, pushing it back above $1,400 for the first time since 2013. This is the movement we have literally been waiting for for years, as it technically brought an end to a very long bottoming process that began six years ago. The gold price in euros already reached the bottom in 2013. But the gold price in dollars did not bottom until the beginning of 2016, to set a second and higher floor in August 2018. We can see that gold producers are the first to recover, with a 24% increase in the HUI index in June. The exploration companies are recovering with a delay, but almost always ultimately show a stronger rise. Technically, the road to $1,600 is now completely open, since the fall from $1,600 to under $1,400 took place in April 2013 in a very short time. We are still seeing a high inflow of capital.

Investments

In the month of May we received two takeover bids on positions in our portfolio. The offer for Cobalt27 (KBLT) comes from Pala Investments, while MOD Resources will most likely be taken over by Sandfire Resources. The last two companies are listed on the Australian stock exchange. Based on our investments, the MOD bid yields a return of more than 35%, while a small loss (-6%) is realized on the sale of KBLT. It is an indication of the extremely low acquisition prices currently in the commodity sector. The acquisition of KBLT, for example, is only 0.7x the book value. The same Sandfire announced in July that it is increasing its share in Adriatic Metals to 11%, one of our larger positions. With five acquisitions since the beginning of this year, we are already ahead of our average of six acquisitions per year, as we have achieved historically. We have decided to greatly increase the weighting of precious metal producers and silver positions in the portfolio.

Please read the latest Monthly Report here (PDF).